Falsifiability: A Crucial Scientific Principle

Naval (via Eric) articulates the importance of falsifiability:

“Least understood, but the most important principle for anyone claiming 'science' on their side — falsifiability. If it doesn’t make falsifiable predictions, it’s not science. For you to believe something is true, it should have predictive power, and it must be falsifiable.”

This prompted me to search for 'falsifiable predictions' immediately. A straightforward explanation I found on Wikipedia included an illustration of two black swans:

“Here are two black swans, but even with no black swans to possibly falsify it, 'All swans are white' would still be shown falsifiable by 'Here is a black swan' — a black swan would still be a state of affairs, only an imaginary one.”

I believe Naval's reference to "predictive power" relates to testing hypotheses. For instance, you can test the claim that "all swans are white" by conceiving the possibility of discovering a black swan.

One critique of falsifiability is that claiming a hypothesis as scientific truth necessitates access to every conceivable piece of data. You could spend your life searching for black swans to affirm that all swans are white, but you can't guarantee you haven't overlooked one.

Nonetheless, the act of designing an experiment (like scouring the earth for black swans) is, at least, falsifiable.

To be honest, I still find this theory somewhat perplexing and am not entirely sure I’m articulating it correctly. However, the key takeaway for me is the importance of adhering to scientific rigor before making sweeping statements, decisions, or policies.

Reflecting on my academic journey, I realize that after leaving the realm of "experimental" science and pursuing an Arts degree (despite my Geography major involving more statistics than chemistry or biology), I drifted away from critical knowledge that fosters a deeper understanding of the world. Inspired by Naval's insights, I have taken steps to reconnect with science—writing this article and ordering a physics book to read next.

Entropy: A Deeper Understanding of Randomness

I enjoy simplifying complex ideas, and at its core, entropy can be viewed as randomness. However, its implications are far more intricate.

These complex scientific theories, though not necessarily deep for everyone, require revisiting foundational knowledge learned in school. A significant point Naval makes in his book is that solid foundations are essential for grasping any subject. The more you build upon your knowledge base, the more effectively you can learn and apply theories that facilitate personal growth.

To understand entropy and its origins, it's beneficial to be familiar with the term "thermodynamics," even if only vaguely.

“Basically, in physics, the arrow of time comes from entropy. The second law of thermodynamics states entropy only goes up, which means disorder in the Universe only goes up, which means concentrated free energy only goes down. If you look at living things (humans, plants, civilizations, what have you), these systems are locally reversing entropy. Humans locally reverse entropy because we have action.”

To grasp Naval’s assertion that humans counteract entropy through action, I conducted further research and found this enlightening article.

The crux of the matter is this: entropy represents uncontrolled chaos that arises without observation or, crucially, intervention (or action). The article provides the example of a fighter jet, which, without continuous adjustments from the pilot or autopilot, will inevitably lose control and crash.

When considering how entropy impacts our lives, context plays a significant role, as illustrated here:

“Coughing is the transfer of energy as heat. If you cough in a quiet coffee shop, which you can think of as a system with low entropy, you cause a big change. Your cough is disruptive. On the other hand, if you cough in Times Square, a system with a lot of entropy, that same cough will have no impact. While you change the entropy in both cases, the impact you have with the same cough is proportional to the existing entropy.”

Thus, your actions to "reverse" entropy will vary in effectiveness depending on their context. For change to occur, you need to exert more effort than entropy itself.

Entropy is providing me with new perspectives on how, when, and how much effort to invest in any given project. You can exert more control in some contexts than you might believe.

Black Swans: The Unpredictable Events

The term "black swans," as a statistical concept, was introduced by Nassim Taleb. Naval references this term to emphasize the importance of understanding probability.

Taleb describes a black swan event as something that is unpredictable, rare, and has a profound impact, yet is often rationalized with hindsight to diminish its outlier status. It’s akin to that friend who, when you share something they clearly didn’t know, casually claims, “Yeah, of course, I knew that… everybody knows that.”

Curious about examples of black swan events, I found an article that lists several, including World War I, the internet, and the events of September 11, 2001.

It’s essential to differentiate between a black swan event and a crisis. Not every black swan event qualifies as a crisis; any lottery winner can attest to that. Conversely, not all crises are black swan events. For instance, terrorist attacks occur regularly worldwide, but the unprecedented scale and unpredictability of the September 11 attacks categorize them as a black swan.

Why do black swan events matter? I dug deeper and found this insightful article that made me reflect on the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential black swan event. Could we have predicted it? Perhaps, but not to the extent of its impact on the world. For example, the UK prided itself on being prepared for a flu pandemic, only to discover that its PPE stocks were outdated or insufficient in quality and quantity to tackle COVID.

Recognizing black swan events seems crucial for learning lessons and preparing for future uncertainties. Moreover, it's increasingly challenging to create a brand-new term that resonates with everyone, making Taleb's contribution noteworthy.

“Taleb used the 2008 financial crisis and the idea of black swan events to argue that if a broken system is allowed to fail, it actually strengthens it against the catastrophe of future black swan events. He also argued that conversely, a system that is propped up and insulated from risk ultimately becomes more vulnerable to catastrophic loss in the face of rare, unpredictable events.”

I appreciate the notion that allowing a flawed system to fail fortifies it against future challenges. It’s not about whether you fall; we all will at some point. Instead, it’s about your ability to rise again.

Additionally, personal lessons can be gleaned from the concept of black swans. Don’t shy away from failure, and avoid over-protecting yourself. Remember, you don’t know what you don’t know.